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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 43

Buffalo Bills 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 8-S.Dennis (23-T.Smith) at TB 32. 8-S.Dennis to TB 32 for no gain (83-K.Latu). TB-23-T.Smith was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.42 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model