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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 55

New York Giants 13 – Green Bay Packers 19

What Actually Happened

(7:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 89-I.Hodgins to GB 43 for 12 yards (25-K.Nixon) [1-M.Parsons].

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.77 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model