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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 36

Chicago Bears 10 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 8-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.08 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model