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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 42

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(9:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 17-X.Legette to ATL 20 for 22 yards (24-A.Terrell).

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.11 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model