4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

CAR
41.8%
ATL
58.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.049 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CAR defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 21
–
ATL 22
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CAR

Trevin Wallace LB Out Shoulder
Lathan Ransom S Out Hand

ATL

Leonard Floyd LB Out Hamstring
Josh Woods LB Out Hamstring
Dee Alford CB Out Concussion
Sam Roberts DT Out Knee
Matthew Bergeron G Out Ankle
Malik Verdon LB Out Shoulder
Jamal Agnew WR Questionable Foot
Mike Hughes CB Questionable Neck
Chris Lindstrom G Questionable Foot
Feleipe Franks TE Questionable Foot
Drake London WR Questionable Illness
Zach Harrison DT Questionable Knee
Brandon Dorlus DT Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 30
–
ATL 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:31 TD CAR (5:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – ATL 0
  • Q1 03:39 TD ATL (3:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-99-T.Wharton, Defensive Holding, declined. CAR 7 – ATL 6
  • Q2 07:56 TD ATL (7:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-11-N.Scourton was injured during the play. CAR 7 – ATL 13
  • Q2 01:45 TD ATL (1:45) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – ATL 20
  • Q2 00:28 FG CAR (:28) 10-R.Fitzgerald 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 10 – ATL 21
  • Q3 12:10 TD CAR (12:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 17-X.Legette for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – ATL 21
  • Q3 01:01 FG CAR (1:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 19 – ATL 21
  • Q4 02:48 FG ATL (2:48) 45-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. CAR 19 – ATL 24
  • Q4 01:15 TD CAR (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 25 – ATL 24
  • Q4 00:21 FG ATL (:21) 45-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. CAR 27 – ATL 27
  • Q5 05:13 FG CAR (5:13) 10-R.Fitzgerald 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 30 – ATL 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 14 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:07) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to CAR 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 27 for 9 yards (84-F.Franks).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 57%

    (9:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 17-X.Legette to ATL 20 for 22 yards (24-A.Terrell).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 14 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:07) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to ATL 10, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at ATL 5.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (:28) 10-R.Fitzgerald 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (8:15) 9-B.Young sacked at ATL 9 for -1 yards (55-K.Elliss).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (5:20) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to CAR 21, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (1:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (12:19) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CAR 16, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 14 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:22) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to ATL 18, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-21-N.Scott.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to CAR 7, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:13) 5-R.Dowdle left guard to CAR 35 for 2 yards (36-R.Harrison).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:05) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 39 for -5 yards (94-L.London). CAR-9-B.Young was injured during the play.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 75%

    (2:48) 45-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 0-J.Sanders to ATL 49 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 86%

    (:21) 45-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.