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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 56

Carolina Panthers 19 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 39 for -5 yards (94-L.London). CAR-9-B.Young was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.69 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -2.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model