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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 27

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Carolina Panthers 27

What Actually Happened

(:21) 45-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.72 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model