4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Carolina Panthers 19

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CAR 16, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.21 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP