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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 16

Carolina Panthers 16 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.32 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model