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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 6-A.Cole punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.50 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 22, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model