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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 59

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 32 for -9 yards (29-J.McMillian).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.33 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -1.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP