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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 23

Houston Texans 7 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 42-M.Wright 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.74 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP