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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 54

Dallas Cowboys 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to LV 5, Center-44-T.Sieg. 1-T.Tucker to LV 2 for -3 yards (38-A.Clark; 35-M.Liufau).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.82 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP