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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 17

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 8-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.98 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 17, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model