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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 36

Detroit Lions 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.70 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model