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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to DET 15, Center-57-C.Adomitis, downed by PHI-28-W.Shipley.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.92 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model