Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

(5:11) 3-C.Waitman punts 42 yards to CIN 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 17 for 4 yards (50-M.Harrison).

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.88 EP
55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model