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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 💨 Windy Spread 5.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CIN
40.5%
PIT
59.5%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN defense: +0.234 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CIN on 7 more days rest than PIT
  • Wind 17 mph
  • PIT defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Aaron Rodgers (PIT) -0.005 vs Joe Flacco (CIN) -0.068 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CIN 20
–
PIT 23
Projected margin: PIT by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CIN

Samaje Perine RB Out Ankle
Trey Hendrickson DE Out Hip
Joe Burrow QB Out Toe
Jermaine Burton WR Out Illness
Shemar Stewart DE Out Knee
Lucas Patrick G Questionable Calf

PIT

Darius Slay CB Out Concussion
Cole Holcomb LB Out Illness
Alex Highsmith LB Out Pectoral
Isaac Seumalo G Questionable Pectoral
Cory Trice Jr. CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 12
–
PIT 34

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:18 TD PIT (10:18) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 14-K.Gainwell for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 05:19 TD CIN (5:19) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-97-Ca.Heyward, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. CIN 6 – PIT 7
  • Q2 00:13 FG PIT (:13) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. CIN 6 – PIT 10
  • Q3 11:58 FG CIN (11:58) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 9 – PIT 10
  • Q3 04:20 FG PIT (4:20) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. CIN 9 – PIT 13
  • Q3 00:51 TD PIT (:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Dugger [90-T.Watt] at PIT 27. 29-K.Dugger for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – PIT 19
  • Q4 09:45 FG CIN (9:45) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 12 – PIT 20
  • Q4 03:46 TD PIT (3:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 14-K.Gainwell for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 12 – PIT 26
  • Q4 03:34 TD PIT (3:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 86-N.Fant to CIN 33 for 5 yards (26-B.Echols). FUMBLES (26-B.Echols), RECOVERED by PIT-42-J.Pierre at CIN 34. 42-J.Pierre for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-26-B.Echols has returned to the game. CIN 12 – PIT 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:16) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to PIT 39 for 1 yard (49-B.Carter; 42-O.Burks). Cincinnati challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (:18) 3-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:58) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (9:19) 3-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to CIN 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-10-R.Wilson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:27) 8-R.Rehkow punts 61 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-W.Wagner. 19-C.Austin to PIT 23 for 12 yards (43-J.Giles-Harris).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:11) 3-C.Waitman punts 42 yards to CIN 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 17 for 4 yards (50-M.Harrison).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:03) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to PIT 4, Center-46-W.Wagner. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 7 for 3 yards (26-T.Anderson).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (:13) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 84%

    (11:58) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 96%

    (4:20) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 94%

    (:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right to 5-T.Higgins (42-J.Pierre).