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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 12

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.44 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP