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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 15

Cincinnati Bengals 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 34

What Actually Happened

(:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right to 5-T.Higgins (42-J.Pierre).

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.23 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 15, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.29 EP