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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(:13) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.78 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 7, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model