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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 3-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to CIN 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-10-R.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.78 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP