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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 8

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 19

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 38-C.Ryland 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model