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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 25 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 18-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.11 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model