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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 1

Miami Dolphins 13 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 31-O.Gordon up the middle to WAS 3 for -2 yards (97-E.Goldman, 4-F.Luvu).

The Three Options

GO +3.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 1, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model