Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 69

Denver Broncos 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

(8:18) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 57 yards to KC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model