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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 15

Chicago Bears 13 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.08 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 15, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP