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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 58

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to DET 12, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 11-K.Raymond to DET 12 for no gain (7-K.Ringo).

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.56 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 58, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP