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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 40

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 38-C.Ryland 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.79 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP