Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q3
Detroit Lions
4th & 5 at the 32
Detroit Lions 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 13
What Actually Happened
(12:19) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 1-J.Williams.
The Three Options
GO
+0.94 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.15 EP
- 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.70 EP
KICK
+0.30 EP
- 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
- 28% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT
-0.26 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
