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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 10

New York Giants 13 – Green Bay Packers 19

What Actually Happened

(2:02) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at GB 17 for -7 yards (sack split by 1-M.Parsons and 58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.55 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model