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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 33

Washington Commanders 3 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 16-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.62 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model