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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 43

San Francisco 49ers 19 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 7-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to ARI 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP