Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 6 – Houston Texans 13

(10:38) 3-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to HOU 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 38 for 11 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model