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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 10-B.Mann punts 28 yards to DET 20, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. PENALTY on PHI-54-J.Trotter, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DET 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model