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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP