Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(3:03) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ARI 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-G.Dortch to SF 44 for 40 yards (59-C.Robinson; 46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model