4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 58

Detroit Lions 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to PHI 20, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 87-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.47 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model