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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 3

Detroit Lions 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(5:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 14-A.St. Brown [50-J.Phillips].

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.47 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 3, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model