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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 38

Washington Commanders 13 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(:15) 16-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.10 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model