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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 70

New York Giants 7 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 12-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to GB 26, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 87-R.Doubs to GB 39 for 13 yards (46-Z.Barnes). PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 26.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.79 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model