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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 11

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.39 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model