4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 45

Detroit Lions 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 3-J.Fox punts 30 yards to PHI 15, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 87-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.45 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model