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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 89

San Francisco 49ers 35 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 7-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to ARI 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-G.Dortch to SF 44 for 22 yards (88-J.Tonges). SF-57-L.Gifford was injured during the play. PENALTY on ARI-45-J.Deguara, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 45.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.34 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 89, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 46, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP