Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 84

New York Giants 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

(6:26) 12-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to GB 38, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-36-R.Payton.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.05 EP
61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model