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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 27

Chicago Bears 16 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 8-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.36 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP