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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 47

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to DAL 4, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-27-T.McCollum.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.41 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model