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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to CHI 15, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 21 for 6 yards (37-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.49 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP