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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 38

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.19 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP