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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Detroit Lions
4th & 3 at the 45
Detroit Lions 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 13
What Actually Happened
(1:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 14-A.St. Brown.
The Three Options
GO
+0.62 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.02 EP
- 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.35 EP
KICK
-1.23 EP
- 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
- 63% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT
-0.35 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
